The map below visualizes the heating of the Arctic as a mountain.
GCM – General Circulation Model describing natural processes in the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere.
RCP – Representative Concentration Pathway. These are a variety of possible scenarios – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – for the changing of the planet’s climate based on the level to which humankind reduces its greenhouse gas emissions. The number of RCP match to how many extra watts per square meter of radiative forcing we can expect from the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which in turn depends on how much greenhouse gas is really in the atmosphere of our planet. RCP8.5 is the most severe scenario, essentially with the sumption that we do completely nothing to stop greenhouse gas emission and continue business-as-usual.
Without meaningful cuts to carbon emissions and land-use changes, humankind is currently on the path to an RCP8.5-like scenario unless large intergovernmental efforts are put into place.
RCP 8.5 evaluation an ~4.5°C global warming by 2100, the Paris agreement only gets us down to ~3°C, still well over the 1.5-2°C that is recommended for the long term conservation of modern levels of human civilization.
As a result of climate change, the Arctic will be ice-free. Greenland is carved out to leave the blue Mediterranean like but cold seas in the interior.
Sea level will rise 30 cm by 2050 and 69 cm by 2100, comparatively to the level in 2000. In the high emission scenario, it will be 34 cm by 2050 and 111 cm by 2100.
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