Latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
The key results of the analysis:
– The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
– Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
– As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
– The United States could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
– The United Kingdom could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
– But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realize their long-term growth potential.
Emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 (GDP at PPPs):
3. United States
10. United Kingdom
Top 10 economies in 2016: 1 – China, 2 – US, 3 – India, 4 – Japan, 5 – Germany, 6 – Russia, 7 – Brazil, 8 – Indonesia, 9 – UK, 10 – France.
Vietnam (average annual GDP growth rate – 5.1%), the Philippines (4.3%) and Nigeria (4.2%) could make the greatest moves up the rankings. Vietnam up 12 places from 32nd to 20th place, the Philippines up 9 places from 28th to 19th, Nigeria up 8 places from 22nd to 14th.
The US and Europe will steadily lose ground to China and India and global economic power will shift to the E7 economies.