Seasonal wind predictions for the energy sector

Seasonal wind predictions for the energy sector

The natural environment and human health, infrastructure, food security, energy production and access to fresh water are all vulnerable to variations in climate, and this hazard will increase as climate changes. Access to credible seasonal forecasts has the potential to improve the resilience of society to climate variability and change. Climate change is discussed in terms of trends that can seem remote, but it takes place through weather events with real and immediate impact and increasing volatility. To be more able to deal with such variability means we are more able to cope with climate change.

Project Ukko is an interactive climate service interface for wind industry users to explore probabilistic wind speed predictions for the coming season provided by the RESILIENCE prototype. The aim is to support users to better understand the future variability in wind power resources and bridge the gap between energy practitioners and the climate science community.

Predicting the future variability of energy resources beyond the first two weeks can allow end users to take calculated, precautionary actions with potential cost savings. In the wind energy sector – for energy traders, wind farm managers and many others – it is crucial to understand wind conditions in the next few months.

Climate services produce and apply climate knowledge and information for decision making in industry, policy and planning. The EUPORIAS project sets out to develop fully working prototypes of climate services that provide made-to-measure seasonal climate predictions, tailored to the specific requirements of different users and industries. Advances in climate science are creating an unprecedented potential to provide climate and weather forecasts for longer periods, over the coming months, seasons and decades. Current energy practices use an approach based on retrospective climatology. This methodology can be improved by probabilistic forecasts, that build upon recent advances in global climate models that simulate the physical processes that govern the whole climate system, at least at some spatial and temporal scales.

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